Party voters on Tuesday are set to choose between Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), a former Republican governor making his second bid to regain office, and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the only elected to statewide Democratic. the main challenge for DeSantis this fall. But while few Republicans have sparked the same kind of anger among Democrats as DeSantis, it’s unclear whether the party has the candidates — or the firepower — to oust a governor whose political rise among conservatives has seemed, at times, unstoppable. . Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who helped former President Obama win the state in 2008 and 2012, said that just a few months ago, DeSantis seemed “unbeatable.” But since then, he said, the political landscape has changed dramatically, thanks in part to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the seminal abortion rights case. “He looks vulnerable now,” Amandi said. “That doesn’t mean he’s going to lose, but it does mean the dynamic has shifted enough at the national level that what once seemed certain is now a potentially competitive race.” “If the Democratic candidates can make Ron DeSandis the poster boy for Republican extremism and what the future of Republican extremism might look like if he is not defeated, then they can position themselves to win,” he added. “If the race is about something else, it will be very difficult,” Amandi added. Of course, DeSantis may have more on the line than his re-election. Florida’s embattled governor is widely believed to be considering a bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, and even a lackluster showing in his home state this year could raise questions about his political future. However, early polls show DeSantis leading both Crist and Fried in hypothetical general election matchups. At the same time, none of the Democrats have raised as much money as the Florida governor, who has raised more than $100 million for his re-election bid — a sum more in line with that of a top-tier presidential candidate than a state official seeking a second term. service. There are also more systemic issues plaguing Democrats in Florida. The state Democratic Party has struggled financially for years and its political infrastructure has deteriorated. And while Democratic leaders, including the state party’s newest chairman, Manny Diaz, have tried to right the ship, strategists and policymakers admit there’s still a long way to go. “I think we’ve seen some movement, some effort to stabilize things. But it’s just not where we need to be,” said a Florida Democratic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss party operations. “That’s the recurring theme in all of this.” In perhaps one of the most visible signs of the Democratic race in Florida, the number of active GOP registered voters surpassed the number registered as Democrats for the first time in the state’s history — an advantage that has only continued to grow since late last year. There are now about 231,000 more registered Republican voters in the state than Democrats. Compare that to 2008, when Obama carried Florida by about 200,000 votes. at the time, there were 700,000 more registered Democrats in the state than Republicans. And then there’s the matter of Democrats’ intensifying struggles with Latinos, a crucial voting bloc whose support for Democrats has eroded in recent years. Republicans, meanwhile, have made big inroads among those voters, a trend underscored in 2020 when former President Trump lost the Latino county of Miami-Dade to President Biden by only 7 points after falling to Hillary Clinton there by nearly 30 points in 2016. All of this creates a much tougher environment for Democrats to win, according to Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. “We don’t know the impact of Roe v. Wade. We don’t know the impact of some of these cultural warfare battles that DeSantis is fighting,” Jewett said. “But the Democrats are the underdogs, whether it’s Freud or Christ. They are cutting their work.” Florida is still known for hosting some of the nation’s closest elections — DeSantis won office in 2018 by just over 32,000 votes, or only about 0.4 percentage points — and even many Republicans say they don’t expect a landslide for the governor of Florida. But first, Democrats will have to rally behind a candidate, and as of now it’s unclear which way they’ll break. Crist has raised more money and received more support from the state Democratic establishment than Fried, a relative newcomer who won office four years ago by just over 5,000 votes. Fried, meanwhile, tried to position herself as the true Democrat in the race by pointing to Crist’s history of switching parties. a longtime Republican, Crist challenged Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as an independent before becoming a Democrat in 2012. She has also made the issue of abortion rights front and center in her campaign since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade this summer, and has hammered Crist for his past inconsistencies on the issue of reproductive rights. The big question now is how quickly Democrats can come together in the wake of the primaries. Crist pledged during a debate last month to support Fried should she win the nomination. Fried, on the other hand, made no such promise — a move Crist described Monday as disappointing. But he said Democrats are planning a “unification rally” in South Florida later this week once the primary results are sorted. Recent primary polling has done little to clarify where the race stands. While Crist has led in most public surveys so far, a University of North Florida (UNF) poll released last week showed Fried leading by 4 points. But a survey conducted Monday by the St. Pete Polls painted a very different picture, showing Crist leading by nearly 30 points. In a brief interview Monday, Fried insisted that DeSantis is a “clear winner,” noting that the governor’s approval ratings are “already down.” Indeed, the UNF poll released last week showed his approval rating falling to 50 percent from 58 percent previously. Fried also said Roe v. Wade gave her campaign a boost, arguing that her stance on abortion will energize not only Democrats but also independent and Republican women in the general election. “If the Democrats want to win in November, I’m the only choice,” he told The Hill. “If they want a fighter, I’m their only choice. If they want an advocate, I’m their only choice. And if they want a winner, I’m their only choice.” Crist, on the other hand, has leaned on his long history in Florida politics and happy-go-lucky warrior personality to argue that he is the Democrat best equipped to take on DeSantis in November. He has drawn endorsements from high-profile Florida Democrats and the state’s largest newspapers and has run as a consensus candidate capable of drawing support from independents and moderate voters disenchanted with DeSantis’ combative and often controversial political style. Suspect leads pursuit at Air Force base after allegedly shooting Oklahoma lawmakers, killing one The Hill’s Morning Report — Trump targets enemies as pressure mounts “Everybody knows Charlie, and that means he can spend his time not introducing himself, but making the case that Ron DeSantis had an opportunity to bring the state together, lower prices, resist special interests, to resist dictators abroad. , and it failed,” said Joshua Karp, a senior advisor to Crist’s campaign. But Democrats say they know how difficult it will be to defeat DeSantis in November — something Crist himself acknowledged Monday during a call with reporters. “This is not going to be an easy fight against DeSantis,” Crist said. “I’m clear about that.”
