An attempted democratic transition spiraled out of control as armed groups built local power bases and coalesced around rival political factions, seizing control of economic assets. After a battle for Tripoli in 2014, a faction including most members of parliament moved east and recognized Khalifa Haftar as army chief, eventually creating a parallel government. A UN-backed deal led to a new, internationally recognized government in Tripoli, but eastern factions rejected the deal and Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) attacked the capital in 2019. Warring armed factions controlling western Libya rallied to back the Tripoli government against Haftar and repelled his 2020 offensive with Turkish help, leading to a ceasefire and a new UN-backed peace process.
How did the latest controversy turn out?
The peace process brought in a new government of national unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah with a mandate to oversee national elections scheduled for December 2021, but there was no agreement on the rules for the vote and the process collapsed. In eastern Libya, parliament declared Dbeiba’s government illegal and appointed a new one under Fathi Bashaga. Dbeibah rejected his moves, saying he would cede power only after elections. Meanwhile, Libya’s western factions that had been united against Haftar jockeyed for position in Tripoli again with occasional skirmishes, and some saw Bashaga as their best bet for progress. Bashaga tried to enter Tripoli soon after his appointment in March, but pro-Dbeiba factions blocked his convoy. He tried again in May, but fled Tripoli after a brief exchange of fire. As the months passed, alliances and coalitions among Tripoli’s factions shifted as both Dbeiba and Bashaga tried to woo key players. In the streets of Tripoli, the armed forces clashed with each other. When fighting broke out between two groups on Friday night, factions aligned with Bashaga began launching what appeared to be coordinated attacks in a new bid to install him in the capital. But the move backfired, apparently leaving Dbeibah firmer.
What are the chances of a political agreement?
The powerful eastern faction of Haftar and parliament speaker Aguila Saleh has shown little willingness to compromise on its goal of removing Dbeibah and installing Bashagha. However, with Bashaga seemingly unable to build a coalition of Western factions that can install him in Tripoli, they may have to reconsider. Turkey’s continued military presence around Tripoli, where it has maintained air bases with drones after helping repel an eastern offensive in 2020, means another Haftar attack on the capital looks highly unlikely for now. Some politicians have raised the idea of another attempt to form a new government acceptable to all sides — something Dbeiba will likely try to block. Meanwhile, diplomacy has stalled and agreement on how to hold elections as a permanent solution to Libya’s political strife seems further away than ever. International efforts to forge a deal have been hampered by discord among the countries involved and among local factions that many Libyans believe want to avoid elections to stay in power. Many of Libya’s population of nearly 7 million fear that this means that, whatever the next round of negotiations and posturing, it will be just another outbreak of violence.
How does it affect Libya’s oil?
Control of Libya’s main export revenue, its oil production of up to 1.3 million barrels a day, has long been the biggest prize for all the main political and military factions. The groups have repeatedly shut down production in the past as a tactic to put pressure on the government in Tripoli, where all revenue from foreign oil sales is channeled to the central bank through international agreements. Forces aligned with Haftar, whose influence stretches across much of the territory that includes major oil fields and export terminals, are responsible for the biggest outages in recent years. The latest shutdown, which cut exports by about half, ended when Dbeibah replaced the head of the National Oil Corporation with a Haftar ally — a move some saw as an attempt to court the eastern commander and make him more open to a political agreement. That may be enough to stave off another shutdown while pro-Basaga factions prepare their next move. But with Libya’s political tangle so far from being resolved, there seems little chance that oil exports will remain untouched for long.
