The NFL Rank is a 1-100 ranking compiled by more than 50 ESPN experts who are asked to rate how the best players will fare during the season. With any ranking, of course, there will be considerations for players left off the list and those ranked too low and too high. We enlisted a panel of ESPN experts — Seth Walder, Matt Bowen, Matt Miller and Jordan Reid — to discuss the rankings. They identified eight snubbed players, 10 players who were either overrated or underrated, and four rookies who have the potential to make the list in 2023. Should Justin Tucker and Bobby Wagner have made the top 100? Who could have been left off the list entirely? Are Russell Wilson at No. 13 and Derrick Henry at No. 61 underrated or overrated? Who should have been in the top 10, but wasn’t? Could the first and second picks in the 2022 NFL draft be on the list a year from now? We answer all these questions and more below. Let’s start with Walder, who ranked the biggest snubs: Skip to a section: Ranking the biggest snobs Who’s overrated? | Rookies to watch
Which players were kicked out of the top 100?
Sports analytics guru Seth Walder ranks the eight players — starting with the longest holdout — he thinks didn’t make the top 100. He then names eight players who should have been on the top 100 list. 2 Related The role of positional value in NFL rankings is not a clear-cut hypothesis. But let me use the rankings themselves to conclude that positional value clearly plays a role, because there are 18 wide receivers and four off-ball linebackers in the top 100. However, there are only three quarterbacks in the top 10, which showing this position value is not everything. So, while kicker is low on the positional importance scale, if there was someone who outperformed his peers, he should crack the top 100. I just described Tucker. Predicting kickers is basically random … unless it’s him. Over the past five seasons, Tucker has led the NFL in above-expectation field goal percentage at +17% (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and has been above +12% in all five of those seasons. He’s been the No. 1 guard in pass block winning percentage in each of the past two seasons, and he’s been top-20 in run block winning percentage in each of those years, as well. No matter the position, it’s hard to exclude this level of excellence from the list. In his two seasons in a primarily pass-rushing role, all Reddick has done is record consecutive double-digit sacks on two different teams and top-10 winning percentage both years. I’m totally sold that it should be on this list. He led all free agents in my March draft picks and is currently seventh in my overall picks for 2022. As for Smith, he ranked second in pass block winning percentage and third in run block winning percentage among guards. If those aren’t top 100 numbers, I don’t know what is. I generally think we’re too slow to anoint young NFL players when they’re playing at an extremely high level and too slow to hit veterans when the slump hits — please forget I said that when I read about the next player — especially those who weren’t especially drafts. But all Smith did in his first NFL season was play incredibly well. Yes, Wagner is 32. And yes, his coverage numbers took a big hit last season. But he has a long history of success in coverage and has retained his ability in the run game. Wagner ranked sixth in run stop winning percentage in 2021, surpassing then-teammate Jordyn Brooks. I bet we’ll see another great year from Wagner. This is a bit of personal preference here, but I still think Lockett never got the credit for how great he has been over the last few years. Last season, among wide receivers with at least 300 carries, Lockett ranked seventh in yards per carry — and everyone else in the top 12 made the list. He’s also second in the Next Gen Stats era (as of 2016) in above-expectation catch percentage (plus-9%) among receivers with at least 1,000 runs in that span, behind only Michael Thomas. Over the past five seasons, Milano leads all linebackers with at least 500 coverage snaps in targeted EPAs allowed at minus-55.5, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also leads all linebackers over that span with a minus-11% completion percentage over the expectation allowed. And he ranks third among linebackers over that span in yards per coverage snap allowed (0.6) and is first among players currently on teams. I didn’t go into this list thinking Milano would be on it, but those coverage numbers are amazing. Williams tied for the league lead among safeties in yards per coverage snap allowed with 0.3 (min. 300 coverage snaps). A single season of safety closer numbers might be a little shaky as evidence on its own for me, but the free agent acquisition this offseason gave him a contract worth $14 million APY — in the same range as players like Kevin Byard and Kevin Byard and Budda Baker who made the list — which bolsters Williams’ case.
Here’s who Walder would leave off the list:
Laremy Tunsil, OT, Houston Texans; Matt Ryan, QB, Indianapolis Colts; Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals; Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers; Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers; Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings; Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans; DeMarcus Lawrence, DE, Dallas Cowboys
Who is overrated and underrated?
NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks 10 players he thinks are underrated or overrated on this year’s top 100. Then he picks who he thinks should have been in the top 10 but wasn’t.
Overrated. I’m rooting for Wilson to play in the Broncos’ new offensive scheme. There will be movement and misdirection, and it will be heavier. And there is real talent at receiver in Denver. However, Wilson’s ranking ahead of Tom Brady and Joe Burrow gave me some pause here based on the tape I watched from last season. Underrated. Perhaps the 2021 foot injury knocked Henry down the ranks this year. When fully healthy, however, Henry can absolutely dictate the flow of the game. It plays like a freight train going down the tracks. And he’ll wear down opposing defenses as a volume runner — with big-play juice. • Bigger role for Dallas’ Tony Pollard?• Can Bradley Chubb return to form?• Justin Herbert’s critical third year• Trey Lance won’t need to be 49ers’ savior• Amid battle-filled NYG practices- 2005 NYJ
Overrated. Young has the physical profile and attributes of a major league player. Based on tape, however, the Commanders defensive end needs more improvement in his pass-rush technique. And Young is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered last season. With more game reps, Young has the ability to develop into a top 50 player in this league, it just might take more time. Underrated. Miller is the quarterback closer who played his best football last season in the playoffs and on the Super Bowl stage. I still see Miller as a top-50 player in this league. Displays top-tier passing skills with game-changing ability. What more could you ask for?
Overrated. When we project Waddle into Mike McDaniel’s offense — and focus on his electric catch and run attributes — I can see why there is preseason hype for the former Alabama wide receiver. There will be scheduled throws (to open up gaps) for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in this system. But I was a little surprised to see Waddle already ranked as a top 100 player — ahead of Mike Williams and Tee Higgins. It seems premature. Overrated. I like the system that fits Indianapolis for Ryan. He sees it quickly from the pocket and can give the ball with location. He is a player of timing and rhythm. But given his declining mobility and arm strength, I’d look here for a higher-ceiling quarterback as we project the back end of the top-100 — perhaps San Francisco’s Trey Lance. Overrated. Quinn’s 2021 numbers put him at No. 90. He had 18.5 sacks, and we’re still seeing his explosive first step, plus the ability to flatten the rushing route. However, we are looking forward to this upcoming season. Quinn has never produced back-to-back double-digit sack seasons in his career. I’d put Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon here over Quinn. Underrated. It’s shocking to see Simmons listed so low given his difference-making attributes at the defensive tackle position. He is a disruptive player who can win designed one-on-ones on the multiple fronts of the Titans or attack rushing lanes with stunts and reversals. Shows foot speed, short area speed and power. I see Simmons as a defensive impact that deserves a higher rating. Underrated. Bates’ postseason film alone should have moved him much higher in the ranks. He’s a versatile safety who can find the football and play as a tone-setter in Cincinnati’s secondary. Underrated. Based on 2021 film and where I project Campbell this season in Green Bay’s defense, he should rank much higher. Campbell has every skill possible, with second-level range and the instincts to find the football. And I think he can be one of the top linemen in the stack this year.
Who should be in the top 10?
After a breakout season that showcased Parsons’ elite physical tools and unique versatility at the position, I’d put the Cowboys linebacker in the top 10. It is the open field ability here and its great features that experience spikes. He’s a three-down playmaker.
Which rookies could crack the top 100 in 2023?
NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reed give four rookies they think could crack the top 100 next year. Hutchinson was one of the best defensive prospects of the past decade when the Lions managed to snag him with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft. Hutchinson’s physical attributes,…
