“There is no condition for dialogue [with Syria]Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview last week. “What matters most is the aim and goal of this dialogue,” he told Turkish broadcaster Haber Global.
His comments marked a dramatic shift from Ankara’s position over the past decade. Turkey has been one of the main backers of the Syrian opposition and armed factions that have fought to topple the Assad regime there, and has intervened in the conflict militarily. The Turkish military maintains a presence beyond its border with Syria and in areas inside Syria that it controls alongside Syrian opposition forces.
Cavusoglu made his comments days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that “diplomacy can never be cut off” with Damascus and that Ankara must “ensure further steps with Syria.” Ankara’s goal, he added, was not to defeat Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Just a decade ago, Erdogan described the Assad regime as “terrorist” who would “pay the price” for the Syrian lives lost in the war. He also vowed to pray at the famous Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, suggesting that the regime would be overthrown. Turkey has upgraded its foreign policy over the past year to mend ties and reconcile with neighbors including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Turkish officials also appear to be working to restore ties with Egypt, whose ruling regime overthrew a democratically elected Islamist government backed by Turkey.
This softening of Ankara’s position also comes as many Arab states turn the page on the Syrian war and welcome Assad back into the regional fold.
The conciliatory statements by Turkish officials are, however, a calculated move aimed at domestic audiences ahead of next year’s elections, Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.
“We are moving towards elections, [Erdogan’s] The numbers look very uncertain and the refugee issue seems to be one of the main problems for Turkish voters across the political spectrum, including his own base,” he said.
Anti-refugee sentiment has been rising in Turkey in recent months. The country is home to the world’s largest refugee population and faces a deepening economic crisis with inflation nearing 80 percent — the highest in nearly three decades. According to the United Nations, the nation of 86 million hosts about 4 million registered refugees, the vast majority of whom are Syrian.
“Refugees are the scapegoat,” Aidindaspas said. “There’s no financial or even real reason for it, but people, when [they’re] unemployed, when [they see] their purchasing power falls, they find refugees a convenient scapegoat.”
Observers and rights groups say Turkey is unlikely to send Syrians back to their country if it is not safe for them, given international treaties protecting the rights of refugees. But they expect it will continue to be used as a tool to rally cross-party support ahead of next year’s vote.
“This whole idea of starting a political dialogue is meant to reassure voters that the government is doing something, [and] has plans to repatriate Syrians, even though that is unlikely to happen,” Aidindasbas said.
Despite assurances from the Turkish government that there will be no forced returns, many Syrians in Turkey fear that they will be forced back. Those in opposition-held areas of Syria fear their areas will be handed back to Syrian government forces.
“We will be executed one by one without any hesitation because we started this revolution,” Ammar Abu Hamzeh, a 38-year-old father of four in the northern Syrian city of Al-Bab, told CNN. “If the regime comes to the liberated areas, we will either die or we will have to leave with our families to Europe via Turkey.”
Both the ruling party and the opposition in Ankara have suggested that normalization with the Assad regime is necessary to address Turkey’s refugee issue.
When the Turkish foreign minister first hinted at reconciliation earlier this month and revealed he had a brief meeting with his Syrian counterpart on the sidelines of a conference last year, it sparked outrage in the last rebel-held part of Syria.
A Syrian in Istanbul described the fear in his community amidst the uncertainty. He spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity because of his own precarious position in both countries.
“[Erdogan] he wants to win the election and we will pay the price,” he said. “If Erdogan wins, they probably wouldn’t send us back without guarantees, but if the opposition wins, they’ll probably open the floodgates and send us all back. We should look at going to other countries.”
Gestures to the Syrian regime would likely be part of Erdogan’s election pledge, Aydindasbas said. “It is highly unlikely that this will go ahead, except for pleasant relations between Turkey and Damascus.”
CNN’s Isil Sariyuce and Celine Al-Khaldi contributed to this article.
Digestion
Iraq’s powerful cleric Sadr says he is quitting politics Iraq’s powerful Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said Monday he was quitting politics and closing his institutions in response to a political impasse. “Announcing my permanent retirement,” he tweeted. Hundreds of protesters inside Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone attempted to storm the Republican Palace, security officials told CNN on Monday.
Background: Considered the kingpin of Iraqi politics, Sadr withdrew his MPs from parliament in June after failing to form a government of his choice. A political stalemate between him and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has given Iraq its longest life without a government.
Why it matters: Sadr’s supporters have occupied parliament since late July and are protesting near government buildings, halting the process of electing a new president and prime minister. The announcement sparked fears they could escalate their protests, fueling a new phase of instability.
Iran reiterates shutdown of UN probe as demand to revive nuclear deal
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said there was “no point in a nuclear deal” if an International Atomic Energy Agency investigation into unexplained traces of uranium at Iranian sites was not settled.
Background: Iran has demanded the closure of an investigation by the UN nuclear watchdog into traces of uranium found at undeclared research sites before agreeing to fully implement a proposal to revive the 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by the Trump administration. Why it matters: The investigation is the only major sticking point in the talks and risks prolonging an already protracted effort to reach a deal. Iran has dropped some demands, including delisting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, a senior US official told CNN earlier this month.
The Turkish pop star will be placed under house arrest after the arrest sparked outrage A Turkish court has ruled that pop star Gulsen must now be placed under house arrest, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported on Monday, after the singer’s formal arrest four days ago over a joke about religious schools sparked outrage.
Background: Gulsen was jailed awaiting trial Thursday on charges of inciting hatred after a video of her comments four months ago appeared on the website of a pro-government newspaper, Sabah, a day earlier. Several ministers condemned her comments on Twitter. She denied the accusation and apologized to those offended by her comments. Why it matters: Thousands took to social media to support Gulsen, saying she was targeted for her support of LGBT+ rights and liberal views that contrast with those held by Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AKP party.
The tweet of the day
A video showing a Turkish sports commentator being slapped by a cat on live TV has gone viral in the country.
Huseyin Ozkok was discussing football live on the A Spor channel on Saturday when a cat appeared behind him and slapped him in the face.
“You have a little guest it seems? Did you bring your cat?” the anchor laughed.
Ozkok replied that he was a guest in the cat’s house.
She later shared a photo of the cat. “Here’s Ollie, our little hot friend who hit me with a right hook on air,” he tweeted. “When he was tiny and about to die, he was found in a garbage can and brought back to life. Let’s take care of animals. Let’s not call bad people animals.”
