The main area of ​​concern is still far out in the Atlantic, but has the best chance of becoming our next named storm (Danielle). The disturbance will continue its westward movement and then gradually shift northwest toward the Leeward Islands throughout the week. The hurricane’s center gives it a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of forming within the next five days. Right now, forecast models show the storm staying north of the Leeward Islands, making a curve to the northeast and staying out to sea. It could have an interaction with Bermuda, but at this time, (key words “at this time”) it is not an immediate threat to the United States. It could, however, pose a rip current risk for parts of the East Coast, depending on how strong the storm is and how close the storm gets to the US before moving away. We told you earlier that trusting a forecast model beyond seven days is something we shouldn’t do, because it’s probably a “fantasy storm.” BUT we are inside the seven day window now, so the next few model runs will be very indicative of what the storm may ultimately do. If there is in fact a hurricane offshore on Labor Day, it could have consequences for the US, even without a direct hit. Along the East Coast, we could see gusty winds and even power outages on beaches, even if the storm remains very close to sea. The bigger the storm, the higher the seas and the stronger the currents. Also, the closer the storm gets to the US, the greater the impact will be. I’m not saying this will happen, I’m just saying it’s worth watching all week.

Development potential in the western Caribbean

Closer to home, the hurricane center is watching an area in the western Caribbean for possible development. “Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula,” the hurricane center noted. While it only has a 20% chance of developing over the next five days, it will be something to keep an eye on as we head into the Labor Day weekend. Even if the storm does not develop, it will enhance rainfall in Texas by pumping additional moisture into the state. This is similar to what happened last weekend with potential tropical cyclone four. (See more about the potential for flooding in Texas below.)

Other areas to watch

There are two other areas the hurricane center is watching for possible development. One is a tropical wave just off the coast of Africa. The hurricane center gives it a 30% chance of developing within five days. The other feature is about 600 miles east of Bermuda and is producing some shower activity. However, further development is unlikely. “Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system as it drifts south and southwest over the central Atlantic over the next two days and is likely to dissipate by the end of the week,” the hurricane center predicted . . Strong winds high in the atmosphere usually kill tropical systems, as this one will, prompting the hurricane center to say it has only a 10 percent chance of developing within the next five days. With so much to see in the tropics all of a sudden, it’s clear that we’re nearing the peak of hurricane season, which is September 10th.

More flooding possible in Texas

After severe flooding in Texas a week ago, more rain is on the way this week. The state could once again be soaked. However, this time the bull’s-eye is further south, along the coast. Parts of Texas could see as much as seven inches of rain this week, mostly in South Texas, in areas that were not hit as hard by last week’s flooding. Much of the rain will fall in areas of severe or extreme drought conditions. The Lone Star State’s flood threat begins today, with areas like Houston, Galveston and Beaumont getting a 50 percent chance of more than five inches of rain. “Tropical moisture and a weak upper-level energy lobe will support many showers and thunderstorms across the central and north Texas coast into southwest Louisiana today,” the Weather Prediction Center said.
The downpours will be similar to what we saw last week in the Dallas area and around Jackson, so areas in Southeast Texas should be on alert for the possibility of flash flooding. Watch video of last week’s floods “By Tuesday, energy should move inland with the threat of heavy precipitation moving into central and west Texas,” the Weather Prediction Center added. Rainfall for central and west Texas this week is expected to reach 2 to 4 inches. The chance for more rain could occur in heavier downpours or if storms begin to train in a certain area. when storms move over the same area for a long time without relief, often resulting in flash flooding. Pinpointing where it might settle is impossible, so any area with an elevated potential for flooding should be on the lookout. With all the rain leading up to Labor Day, you might be wondering what the holiday weekend itself has in store. While it’s hard to predict so far, models are showing rain for the Gulf Coast continuing through the Labor Day weekend. Most of the showers and storms will remain along much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, while the eastern Gulf Coast will see more spotty showers. We’re also looking at the potential for the front to cross the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast by Labor Day weekend. It could bring periods of rain, but also cooler temperatures on the backside of the front.